Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 
 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete list below. Last years accuracy: 11 out of 13 or 84.5% or 13 out of 15.
 There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 26-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Thirteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] W-L and SOS against teams already in the tournament field. Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL AQ AT-LARGE RNK RNK RNK Significant TOP LST 6 TOTAL PROB PROB PROB W-L RPI SOS W L W-L-T W-L-T W L T [1] [3] [2] [4] [5] [6] 1 Albany 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 2 American 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 3 Army 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 4 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 5 Boston College 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 6 Boston University 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 7 Brown 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 8 Bryant 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 9 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 10 Butler 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 11 California 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 12 Campbell 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 13 Canisius 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 14 Central Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 15 Central Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 16 Cincinnati 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 17 Coastal Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 18 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 19 Colorado 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 20 Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 21 Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 22 Cornell 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 23 Dartmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 24 Davidson 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 25 Delaware 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 26 Delaware State 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 27 Denver 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 28 Detroit 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 29 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 30 Duke 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 31 Duquesne 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 32 Elon 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 33 Fairfield 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 34 Florida 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 35 Fresno State 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 36 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 37 Gardner-Webb 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 38 George Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 39 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 40 Georgetown 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 41 Harvard 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 42 High Point 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 43 Hofstra 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 44 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 45 Howard 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 46 Iona 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 47 Jacksonville 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 48 James Madison 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 49 Johns Hopkins 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 50 Kennesaw State 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 51 La Salle 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 52 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 53 Lehigh 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 54 Liberty 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 55 LIU Brooklyn 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 56 Longwood 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 57 Louisville 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 58 Loyola 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 59 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 60 Marist 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 61 Marquette 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 62 Maryland 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 63 Massachusetts 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 64 Massachusetts-Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 65 Mercer 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 66 Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 67 Monmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 68 Mount St. Mary's 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 69 Navy 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 70 New Hampshire 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 71 Niagara 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 72 North Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 73 Northwestern 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 74 Notre Dame 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 75 Ohio State 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 76 Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 77 Oregon 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 78 Penn 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 79 Penn State 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 80 Presbyterian 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 81 Princeton 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 82 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 83 Radford 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 84 Richmond 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 85 Robert Morris 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 86 Rutgers 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 87 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 88 Saint Francis 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 89 Saint Joseph's 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 90 San Diego State 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 91 Siena 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 92 Southern California 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 93 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 94 St. Mary's (CA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 95 Stanford 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 96 Stetson 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 97 Stony Brook 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 98 Syracuse 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 99 Temple 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 100 Towson 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 101 UC Davis 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 102 UMBC 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 103 Vanderbilt 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 104 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 105 Villanova 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 106 Virginia 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 107 Virginia Commonwealt 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 108 Virginia Tech 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 109 Wagner 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 110 William & Mary 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 111 Winthrop 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 112 Yale 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0